Evidence
The record, including the parts that are not flattering.
Every edge the engine flags is logged as a forward-tested bet before anyone is asked to pay for it, then graded against the price the same book closed at. This is that record. The error bars are here because a return without one is not evidence, and at this sample they are wider than anything inside them.
Against the closing line
Beating the close is the only measure that predicts long-run profit rather than describing a streak. Only same-book closings in markets we have verified count here: 303 bets sit in markets still proving themselves and 0 could only be graded against a different book, and neither is allowed to move this number.
Edges vs the close
4.37%
95% CI 3.47% to 5.28%
Beat the close
63.78%
above the 55% we hold ourselves to
Graded bets
254
past the 150 we treat as a floor
Does a bigger edge beat the close by more?
If the model is measuring something real, the edges it rates highest should beat the close by the most. If the bars are flat or backwards, the ratings are decoration.
Flagged 2-4%
4.07%
n=195
Flagged 4-7%
4.84%
n=41
Flagged 7%+
6.62%
n=18
Higher flagged EV has beaten the close by more, in order, across every band with data.
What it would have done to a bankroll
The question a buyer actually asks, and a harder one to answer honestly, so it is never used as a gate.
Flat-stake return
-5.52%
plus or minus 6.20% on 270 settled
Quarter Kelly
-25.45%
worst drawdown 29.12% peak to trough
Distance from zero
0.89σ
inside the noise band
At this sample the return is consistent with no edge and with a good one. Both are true, which is why the figure above is not printed in a colour. A real 3% edge would need about 4,610 settled bets to clear zero by two standard errors. We have 270. Closing-line value converges far faster than realised return, which is why the number above it is the one we are judged on.
Market by market
A market is marked verified only after its own record passes the same test. Until then it is shown in the product with a badge and kept out of the headline above.
415 forward-tested bets in total, 557 with a closing line so far, plus 585 candidates the engine declined and graded anyway so the decision can be judged later.
Read it yourself
The sample market runs the same engine on a recorded board, with no account and no card. Every number on it is produced the way the numbers above were.
Open the sample market